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Gordon et al. A potential reason to adopt other economic variables than GDP is the need for more disaggregate information, geographically through more regional or local measures; see, e. This was the case in Grewal and Tansuhaj , Srinivasan et al. The most frequently used perceptual measure is the consumer confidence index see, for example, Allenby et al. Continuous macro-economic aggregates or survey-based measures are not necessarily the best proxy for the cyclical state of the economy.

The long-term upward trend underlying real U. GDP since , for example, shows an average yearly growth of 3. Also, unemployment series or inflation rates have been found to show clear seasonal patterns that should not be confused with BCs. Economists see e. To do this, BC filters have been developed, which have become popular in marketing as well. The economics literature has developed various filtering techniques to extract BC information from aggregate economic series.

An overview of alternative filtering techniques is provided in Canova and Baxter and King , among others. Based on the observation from several NBER researchers see, e. These filters are easy to implement and, with proper adaptation, can be used on data series with different levels of temporal aggregation. Interestingly, even though the filters have been designed and applied in the economics literature to detect BCs in various aggregate economic series see, e.

The latter is subsequently obtained by subtracting the filtered series from the original series. The band-pass filter, in turn, directly passes through all fluctuations within a certain frequency band typically set between 1. As such, the outcome of the filter is already the BC component in the series at hand.

Both the Baxter and King and the Christiano and Fitzgerald filter are built on this band-pass principle. As such, no observations are lost in the filtered series. We refer to the original papers for the technical details on the respective derivations. Several studies have used the HP filter to extract the cyclical fluctuations in both per capita GDP and various marketing series, including sales Deleersnyder et al.

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They find a good correspondence between the BC fluctuations extracted with both filters, and all main results were replicated. A key consideration in the choice of filter is the temporal aggregation of the data. With yearly data, both the HP and BP filter produce similar results. When data is available at a lower level of aggregation, the HP filter will also retain seasonal and other short-term high-frequency noise that is not associated with the BC. Given that this is removed by the BP filter, the latter is preferred for studies where data is available at the quarterly, monthly or lower levels of temporal aggregation.

Thus far, only van Heerde et al. In this study, the authors opted for the CF random walk filter over the more general BP filter to avoid losing observations at the beginning and end of the series. Relationship between alternative approaches to assess the BC, applied to yearly U. When researchers infer the state of the economy directly from a continuous economic indicator such as U. Interestingly, the majority of the over-time variation in aggregate GDP is related to the long-term upward trend in the series, which masks to some extent the cyclical variation around it.

Comparing these fluctuations with the discrete official economic contraction periods identified by the NBER and represented in Panel A and B with the grey bars cf. Once the general state of the economy has been identified, researchers still need to describe and summarize different BC properties in the marketing series of interest. As pointed out in Table 3 , both univariate and multivariate methods have been adopted to do so. Univariate techniques focus on understanding the extent of or asymmetries in the cyclical ups and downs within a given marketing or performance series, but do not consider whether these fluctuations are synchronized coincide with those in the aggregate economy.

As such, these methods are used when prior BC filters have been applied to the respective series. Multivariate approaches, in turn, explicitly relate fluctuations in the focal variables to cyclical fluctuations in the aggregate economy. In this case, all three approaches to infer the BC in the economy at large can be used.

This measure is acquired by first applying a BC filter to the log-transformed marketing series to extract those fluctuations that occur at BC periodicities. After this filtering, the standard deviation of the resulting cyclical series expresses, in percentage terms, the extent of cyclical variability in the series at hand. For instance, the average cyclical variability in postwar U. This volatility measure can be expressed relative to the normal level or growth rate in the series, but also a comparison across series is possible.

Stock and Watson , for example, compare the cyclical volatility across numerous macro-economic series, while Deleersnyder et al. Importantly, both studies also relate the cyclical volatility in the relevant economic or marketing series to the cyclical volatility in national GDP over the same period to see whether the former are affected more or less than the economy as a whole. A multivariate extension of the cyclical volatility statistic is the cyclical comovement elasticity COM in Table 3. This alternative measure also starts with a BC filter implemented on the log-transformed series.

After filtering both the marketing series and a general economic mostly GDP-based metric, a regression of the former on the latter results in a cyclical comovement elasticity we refer to Lamey et al. Also, because of its unit-free nature, comparisons across marketing instruments, categories or countries are straightforward. Most research in marketing that quantifies the cyclical comovement elasticity shows that the BC fluctuations in performance Deleersnyder et al.

Similarly, the average co-movement elasticity for the number of visitors travelling to New Zealand from 30 countries reported in Dekimpe et al. However, Lamey et al. Hence, BC downturns enhance both private-label and discounter success. Several studies have performed a regression over time of a marketing conduct or performance variable on a continuous economic-activity series REG: econ in Table 3. Similar to studies using filtering approaches, national GDP per capita is the dominant measure to capture the general state of the economy when a continuous BC measure is used Estelami et al.

But also other metrics like inflation, unemployment and interest rates Estelami et al. Gallup-Healthways perceived economic well-being index Kumar et al. Other studies have relied on a time-series regression of the marketing series on a recession dummy to capture the discrete state of the economy REG: dum in Table 3. For studies on U. Also Dutt and Padmanabhan use a dummy-regression approach, but they examine data for 99 countries worldwide, many of which do not publish any official recession dates.

Finally, several studies see, among others, Steenkamp and Fang and van Heerde et al. The semi-dummy for the contraction takes the value of 0 when cyclical GDP increases, while it represents the magnitude of the contraction when cyclical GDP decreases. Specifically, one computes the drop relative to the previous peak in the cyclical GDP series. Similarly, another semi-dummy can be created to capture the magnitude of expansion periods with the size in each period computed relative to the previous trough in the cyclical GDP series.

We refer to Lamey et al. A number of studies see, e. Various studies have tested for asymmetries over the BC. Here too, univariate and multivariate methods have been used see Table 3. Univariate asymmetry statistics capture BC asymmetries within a series, and evaluate how cyclical movements in the series during a contraction deviate from the cyclical movements in the subsequent expansion period. Both types are inferred from the BC filtered series through the third-order moment i.

Since deepness asymmetry relates to deviations in the absolute level of the series, it is derived directly from the BC filtered series. Steepness asymmetry, in turn, relates to the slope or growth rate in the cyclical series, and hence, can be determined by computing the skewness statistic on the first difference of the cyclical component in the series of interest Sichel Alternatively, multiple individual tests have been combined meta-analytically to further increase the power of the inference e. Univariate deepness and steepness statistics have been derived in Deleersnyder et al.

Even though contractions are shorter than most expansions, they elicit swift downwards adjustments in durable purchases among households, while the upward adjustments take considerably more time. Also, the depth of the recessionary troughs is deeper further below the mean level than the peaks in the subsequent expansion are high. Interestingly, Lamey et al. Here, consumers switch faster steepness and further deepness towards private labels during contractions than they switch back to the original national brands in the subsequent expansion period.

In the international tourism industry, Dekimpe et al. Several studies also evaluate asymmetries in the relationship between variables over the BC. Fornell et al. Steenkamp and Fang and van Heerde et al. Tuli et al. Finally, Kumar et al. The majority of the studies presented in Table 3 only considered instantaneous effects of the BC. Still, literature in economics has revealed that certain variables may have a lead labor vacancies or lagging unemployment relationship with the general state of the economy, or that the impact is not fully captured in the same period, but rather extends beyond the current period Mascarenhas and Aaker ; Stock and Watson However, the resulting dynamic comovement elasticity was very similar to the static one.

This was also the case in Dekimpe et al. Also Dutt and Padmanabhan and Steenkamp and Fang evaluate a delayed impact by adding a three-year and a one-year lag to their models, respectively.


While Steenkamp and Fang find little empirical support for the presence of any dynamics, Dutt and Padmanabhan find for some of the countries in their sample significant effects of the currency crisis for up to three years. A somewhat different method is used in van Heerde et al. They used an error-correction model, which allows to directly infer short- and long-run elasticities, which were both interacted with the aforementioned semi-dummies to assess how they were moderated by the size of, respectively, expansion and contraction periods.

Also Kumar et al. Most methods described so far were able to capture the temporary impact of the BC, where any adverse or beneficial effect during the contraction will eventually be restored in the subsequent expansion, even though this could take somewhat more time in case of univariate cyclical asymmetries.

These studies rely either on time-series growth models, or on cross-sectional models that link average growth rates to BC properties across a large set of marketing series. By splitting the BC in two phases, the persistent effect of a contraction is not necessarily cancelled out in the subsequent expansion. Such an asymmetric growth model was used in Lamey et al.

Alternatively, marketing studies have also examined the permanent effects of BCs based on cross-sectional analyses.

Here, one first derives on a broad sample of time series the cyclical properties within each series such as the cyclical comovement elasticity or the univariate asymmetry statistics , as well as the average long-term growth rate in that series. This approach was first implemented by Deleersnyder et al. More recently, Cleeren et al. Cleeren et al. Most of the methods to extract BC information from marketing series have been developed in the economics literature, which also contains numerous often simulation studies on the respective pros and cons of alternative approaches. Still, marketing studies rarely motivate their choice for a specific approach, giving this choice somewhat of an ad-hoc feeling.

For example, Lamey et al. The former subsequently derived semi-dummy variables to quantify the extent size of the contraction and expansion, while a binary dummy variable was used in the latter. Similarly, studies working with the NBER recession dates either use the proportion of months in a given year in the recession period cf. Edeling and Fischer , or a binary classification based on whether the majority of months falls in a recession period e. With respect to the diverse set of metric and methods to describe BC patterns in the data, we conclude from our review that 1 depending on the type of phenomenon one is interested in, different approaches may be required, and 2 different patterns can co-exist in the same series e.

Substantively, more research is required to evaluate possible relationships between these phenomena. On the methodological side, new approaches that combine these analyses or that allow to study more complex cyclical patterns e. Finally, survey research could be an important instrument to reveal the underlying mechanisms for the observed BC patterns in consumer and managerial behavior. Various studies have looked at a variety of BC phenomena, and a broad set of research techniques has emerged to study the impact of BCs on performance, marketing decisions, and marketing effectiveness.

This paper reviewed and synthesized the current state of knowledge on the topic. The impact of BCs can manifest itself in many ways. Retailers as well as manufacturers should be aware that consumers, who are shaken out their habitual buying behavior and who are pushed towards alternative often more deliberate purchase decisions to economize on their spending during contractions, can adopt a wide variety of coping strategies. They not only opt to cut back on the quantity of products and services they buy, they may also shift budgets across categories, or switch to cheaper brand alternatives and stores within the category, while purchases may also be postponed till better times.

Importantly, one should not count on the fact that customers will quickly or fully revert these decisions in the subsequent expansion. Firms have been found to change their strategies and activities significantly over the BC. Almost all major marketing instruments tend to be adjusted when the economy winds down. Thus, economic downturns can offer opportunities to firms that make the most appropriate adjustments. Blindly following the herd in an attempt to adhere to the wisdom of the crowd is not necessarily optimal.

It has been shown repeatedly that firms which go against the tide can benefit from worsening economic conditions, both during and following the recession. If everyone cuts back, simply maintaining their spending or cutting back less can already help a brand or firm to outspend and outperform their competitors. Keep a holistic view. Automatically going against the grain is not always optimal either. If all three evolve pro- counter- cyclically, spending should be pro- counter- cyclical too.

Occasionally, however, their evolution differs, and the elasticity magnitudes need to be compared. The directionality pro- or counter-cyclical of the net elasticity determines which policy is recommended. Thus, a single-minded focus on only one of these dimensions may well result in suboptimal decisions. No size fits all. The dependence of brands and firms on the BC is not uniform across industries nor countries.

The way in which consumers adjust their spending behavior depends not only on the product category e. Be prepared. History has made clear that after years of economic prosperity, the economic tide will turn again. To weather these harsh economic times, which will come around sooner or later, managers should not just spend more on marketing in the recession, they also need to spend existing budgets more smartly by shifting some of the marketing expenses over time and over products.

Therefore, spending strategies during prosperous economic times may need some smoothing and some of these budgets could be put aside to weather the next recession period, and thereby prevent that some of the customers may be irrevocably lost. Not surprisingly, numerous research opportunities remain in this area that has only recently received due attention in the academic marketing literature. Several specific opportunities have already been indicated throughout the text. In the following sections, we summarize three general domains in need of more research: 1 a broadening of the research scope, 2 an exploration of relevant contingency factors, and 3 a deepening of the normative recommendations.

Even tough an initial set of empirical generalizations on the impact of economic cycles has emerged see, for example, Hanssens , pp. First, as in many other domains of marketing research, the majority of studies thus far has focused on mature U. In terms of the marketing-mix instruments studied, it would be good to consider a more diverse set of more disaggregate marketing instruments. In addition, it would be good to also consider other non-grocery, non-travel sectors, and to explore in detail the heterogeneity within a given sector.

Second, even though the number of studies has increased considerably over the last two decades, the number of distinct research questions has not increased at the same rate. Indeed, several studies had a very similar substantive focus. For example, the shift in grocery shopping towards private labels in economically more difficult times has been documented in, among others, Deleersnyder et al. Within the service industry, international tourism has been subjected to an elaborate BC analysis in Kumar et al.

Still, it is essential to expand the set of research questions, and several useful avenues have been discussed throughout the text at the end of the respective sections. In addition, a number of well-established research paradigms will need to be adapted to better reflect the financial constraints that consumers and firms face during economic crises.

Bradlow , for instance, wonders whether currently used choice models adequately reflect the decision rules that consumers use during economically harsh times. For example, do current specifications adequately capture that some consumers become more price lexicographic in their decision process? Do they allow that the weight attached to both price Gordon et al. And do stringent budget constraints and the no-choice option receive sufficient attention?

In a similar vein, one may wonder what elements of customer-lifetime-value models e. Finally, more research is needed how to optimally organize the marketing organization e. Initially, empirical insights were mostly presented as main effects. However, as the field developed, more and more moderating effects have been added to the discussion. It is of paramount importance to identify additional moderating factors, as these set the limits of generalizability Whetten , and constitute crucial boundary conditions for existing BC theory in marketing MacInnis Numerous research opportunities exist in this respect.

For example, what is the role of, respectively, the length and the depth of the crisis in explaining customer and managerial adjustments? Also, how important are regional within-country differences in economic health? Are consumers in rural, as opposed to metropolitan, regions more or less sensitive to BCs? Do consumers favor local over global brands more during contractions than during expansions? Most research findings have been descriptive in nature, i.

For example, Deleersnyder et al. However, while the first two studies base their conclusion on the cyclicality of demand, van Heerde et al. In an attempt to solve this conundrum, Peers et al. Still, more research is needed to not only extend this discussion to other marketing-mix instruments like innovation strategies, price positioning or optimal assortment composition , but also to make the recommendations more actionable and concrete.

Finally, these recommendations consider what managers should do during or after the recession. But what about before the economic crisis hits? Should forward-looking managers already prepare themselves for a potential future economic crisis, even when the timing and intensity of that crisis is still unknown? And if so, when and how much? More research along the lines of Rubel et al. Clearly, many questions remain that require additional research. With the current review, we have structured the existing empirical knowledge base on the impact of BC fluctuations on both consumers and managers.

We hope this review will be helpful to other marketing researchers with a clear BC focus in their work. Given that the economy will surely face another downturn at some point in the future, also academic marketing research may want to take a proactive view, and already address some of these issues before the next global or regional crisis hits. Relevant studies published in other journals as well as working papers are added throughout the text to complement the discussion, but are not listed in the summary tables. This U. In the meta-analysis by Estelami et al.

The CERP identifies turning dates for a European BC from onwards based on the developments in eleven original euro-area member countries plus Greece for —, and of the euro area as a whole from onwards. A similar procedure was recently adopted in Jindal and McAlister Since the meta-analysis in Sethuraman et al. A similar approach is used in the recent meta-analysis of Edeling and Fischer Ter Braak et al. In a somewhat different operationalization, Tavassoli et al. A somewhat different but related approach is applied in Sudhir et al.

While some studies have worked with the first differences of the original series see, for example, Lamey et al. See, among others, Baxter and King , Burnside , or Canova Talay et al. The authors are indebted to Anirban Mukherjee and Harald van Heerde for useful comments on an earlier version of the paper.

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Advertisement Hide. Download PDF. Business cycle research in marketing: a review and research agenda. Open Access. First Online: 07 June Introduction Marketing research has long overlooked the impact of business cycle BC fluctuations. An often-used definition of BCs goes back to the classic study of Burns and Mitchell , p. An overview of 31 post marketing studies that focus on the impact of the BC is presented in Table 1. We organize our discussion of the main insights from these studies along the following five dimensions: 1 the key focus of the study output metric, marketing input, or marketing-mix effectiveness , 2 the type of industry durables, non-durables, and services, in either a B2B or B2C setting , 3 the geographic coverage single country, multi-country, or global , 4 the data characteristics temporal aggregation and time span and, finally, 5 the temporary versus permanent nature of the BC impact.

Figure 1 visualizes and structures the core research themes studied in the marketing literature so far that will be covered in this review. Open image in new window. A first distinction is based on the focus of the study, where we distinguish three streams of research. In Table 2 , we list the studies according to their main study focus, along with their primary research findings.

Table 2 Main insights from empirical business cycle research in marketing. Yeung et al. Extent Studies often compare the cyclical fluctuations in the variable of interest with those in the overall economy, and consider 1 whether they occur in the same pro-cyclical or opposite counter-cyclical direction and 2 whether they get amplified or attenuated relative to those in the economy as a whole. Future research While previous research has documented the possibility of multiple coping strategies, little is known about their relative occurrence.

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Asymmetric nature Apart from the size and direction of the BC fluctuations in performance, a number of studies in this research stream have documented asymmetries between up- and downward movements in category or industry performance. Future research First, more studies have documented on the extent of cyclical sensitivity than on the cyclical asymmetry in performance series.

General marketing One of the first studies in this area was Srinivasan et al. Advertising Studies on the extent of advertising spending over the BC cycle have repeatedly shown that a majority of firms cuts back significantly on advertising in a contraction, while advertising spending rebounds in the subsequent expansion period Deleersnyder et al. Innovations Research in both economics and marketing shows that innovation development and new-product launches exhibit pro-cyclical adjustment patterns, i.

Price In economics, opposing arguments on the direction of the recommended price changes during economic contractions have been made. Future research First, existing studies have almost exclusively focused on the cyclical sensitivity in one or two traditional marketing instruments. Advertising Research findings are less equivocal for advertising.

Customer satisfaction and movie critics Also other marketing activities have been shown to have a differential effectiveness across alternative BC stages. Future research While previous results hold for the majority of firms and brands, several studies have pointed out that there can be considerable heterogeneity depending on the industry type Srinivasan et al. Over the years, research has relied on a variety of methods to make BC inferences.

In reviewing these methods, we distinguish between 1 approaches to assess the general state of the economy i. An overview is provided in Table 3. Table 3 Methods and metrics used in empirical BC research in marketing. Study How is the BC inferred? Any empirical examination of the BC involves an identification of the general state of the economy. The three approaches discussed before extract somewhat different, yet related, information. In Fig. Cyclical volatility Deleersnyder et al. Cyclical comovement A multivariate extension of the cyclical volatility statistic is the cyclical comovement elasticity COM in Table 3.

Time-series regression on a continuous economic variable Several studies have performed a regression over time of a marketing conduct or performance variable on a continuous economic-activity series REG: econ in Table 3. Time-series regression on a semi- dummy economic variable Other studies have relied on a time-series regression of the marketing series on a recession dummy to capture the discrete state of the economy REG: dum in Table 3.

Cross-sectional methods A number of studies see, e. Multivariate asymmetries Several studies also evaluate asymmetries in the relationship between variables over the BC. Cross-sectional methods Alternatively, marketing studies have also examined the permanent effects of BCs based on cross-sectional analyses.

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Beating the recession blues: Exploring the link between family ownership, strategic marketing behavior and firm performance during recessions. International Journal of Research in Marketing, 31 1 , 78— Katona, G. Psychological economics. Kumar, V. Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures. International Journal of Forecasting, 11 3 , — Assessing the influence of economic and customer experience factors on service purchase behaviors. Marketing Science, 33 5 , — Lamey, L. Hard economic times: a dream for discounters.

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In a Downturn, Provoke Your Customers

While we live in a world of specialisation, Peter sees himself as a generalist who places importance on collecting varied experiences rather than just doing more of the same. He is known for his ability to make sense of the bigger picture and apply that to identifying practical solutions. He has lived and worked as a consultant in the UK, Germany, Austria and Australia and has carried out assignments in more than 15 countries on four continents.

He counts some 30 Fortune Global companies including several in the top among his clients. Permissions Request permission to reuse content from this site. Table of contents Acknowledgements. A philosophical introduction to a hard-edged topic. Part I: Strategic considerations.